In the era of big data, subsampling became a common practice in statistical learning. By selecting a subgroup of individuals based on which the learner is trained, subsampling aims at reducing the computational cost and time of the estimation step, and ideally leads to a decrease of its energy consumption and carbon footprint. This work focuses on a nonparametric setting, in which the hypotheses set lies in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and the estimator is a minimizer of an empirical risk reweighted à la Horvitz-Thompson. By studying the asymptotic properties of this estimator, we reveal an optimal subsampling scheme (regarding the trace of the covariance operator) and show that it can be used via plug-in. A numerical study on synthetic and real-world datasets shows the practicability and the benefit of the proposed approach.

We study the problem of stabilizing an unknown partially observable linear timeinvariant (LTI) system. For fully observable systems, the state-of-the-art approaches leverage an unstable/stable subspace decomposition to achieve sample complexity that depends only on the number of unstable modes, independent of the dimension of the system state. However, it remains open whether such sample complexity can be achieved for partially observable systems because such systems do not admit a uniquely identifiable unstable subspace. In this paper, we propose LTS-P, a novel technique that leverages compressed singular value decomposition (SVD) on the "lifted" Hankel matrix to estimate the unstable subsystem up to an unknown transformation.

We address the challenge of efficient exploration in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), where the system dynamics are unknown and the RL agent must learn directly from online interactions. We propose Scalable and Optimistic MBRL (SOMBRL), an approach based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. SOMBRL learns an uncertainty-aware dynamics model and greedily maximizes a weighted sum of the extrinsic reward and the agent's epistemic uncertainty. SOMBRL is compatible with any policy optimizers or planners, and under common regularity assumptions on the system, we show that SOMBRL has sublinear regret for nonlinear dynamics in the (i) finite-horizon, (ii) discounted infinite-horizon, and (iii) non-episodic settings. Additionally, SOMBRL offers a flexible and scalable solution for principled exploration. We evaluate SOMBRL on state-based and visual-control environments, where it displays strong performance across all tasks and baselines. We also evaluate SOMBRL on a dynamic RC car hardware and show SOMBRL outperforms the state-of-the-art, illustrating the benefits of principled exploration for MBRL.

When applicants get rejected by a high-stakes algorithmic decision system, recourse explanations provide actionable suggestions for applicants on how to change their input features to get a positive evaluation. A crucial yet overlooked phenomenon is that recourse explanations are performative: When many applicants act according to their recommendations, their collective behavior may shift the data distribution and, once the model is refitted, also the decision boundary. Consequently, the recourse algorithm may render its own recommendations invalid, such that applicants who make the effort of implementing their recommendations may be rejected again when they reapply. In this work, we formally characterize the conditions under which recourse explanations remain valid under their own performative effects. In particular, we prove that recourse actions may become invalid if they are influenced by or if they intervene on non-causal variables. Based on this analysis, we caution against the use of standard counterfactual explanation and causal recourse methods, and instead advocate for recourse methods that recommend actions exclusively on causal variables.

We revisit the contextual cascading bandit, where a learning agent recommends an ordered list (cascade) of items, and a user scans the list sequentially, stopping at the first attractive item. Although cascading bandits underpin various applications including recommender systems and search engines, the role of the cascade length K in shaping regret has remained unclear. Contrary to prior results that regret grows with K, we prove that regret actually decreases once K is large enough. Leveraging this insight, we design a new upper-confidence-bound algorithm built on online mirror descent that attains the sharpest known regret upper bound, O min{K pK 1,1}d Tfor contextual cascading bandits. To complement this new regret upper bound, we provide a nearly matching lower bound of Ω min{KpK 1,1}d T, where 0 p p < 1. Together, these results fully characterize how regret truly scales with K, thereby closing the theoretical gap for contextual cascading bandits. Finally, comprehensive experiments validate our theoretical results and show the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Neural networks are known for their ability to approximate smooth functions, yet they fail to generalize perfectly to unseen inputs when trained on discrete operations. Such operations lie at the heart of algorithmic tasks such as arithmetic, which is often used as a test bed for algorithmic execution in neural networks. In this work, we ask: can neural networks learn to execute binary-encoded algorithmic instructions exactly? We use the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) framework to study the training dynamics of two-layer fully connected networks in the infinite-width limit and show how a sufficiently large ensemble of such models can be trained to execute exactly, with high probability, four fundamental tasks: binary permutations, binary addition, binary multiplication, and Subtract and Branch if Negative (SBN) instructions. Since SBN is Turing-complete, our framework extends to computable functions. We show how this can be efficiently achieved using only logarithmically many training data. Our approach relies on two techniques: structuring the training data to isolate bit-level rules, and controlling correlations in the NTK regime to align model predictions with the target algorithmic executions.

Personalized Bayesian federated learning (PBFL) handles non-i.i.d.

Gaussian width is a central geometric complexity measure in high-dimensional probability, compressed sensing, convex optimization, and learning theory. It quantifies the average extent of a set along random directions, thereby capturing the effective dimension of constraint sets, hypothesis classes, and descent cones. However, this notion is intrinsically Euclidean. Statistical models instead carry a natural Riemannian geometry induced by the Fisher information metric, where directions are scaled according to statistical distinguishability rather than ambient Euclidean length. We introduce Fisher width, a Fisher-geometric analogue of Gaussian width for statistical manifolds. At a parameter point $θ$, Fisher width replaces the Euclidean identity by the local metric tensor $G(θ)^{1/2}$, measuring the Gaussian width of the Fisher-rescaled set. This makes the resulting quantity sensitive to local statistical curvature and invariant under smooth reparameterizations. We develop the basic theory of Fisher width, showing that it retains key structural features of Gaussian width, including concentration, metric perturbation stability, and spectral comparison bounds with the Euclidean baseline, while also capturing anisotropic geometric effects invisible to Euclidean measures. As an application, we prove a generalization bound for Fisher-Lipschitz hypothesis classes and propose computable estimators, which we evaluate empirically on MNIST across three model classes. Fisher width is to statistical manifolds what Gaussian width is to Euclidean convex bodies. This work lays the foundation for studying complexity and learning on curved statistical manifolds.

Models of hybrid dynamical systems are widely used to answer questions about the causes and effects of dynamic events in time. Unfortunately, existing causal reasoning formalisms lack support for queries involving the dynamically triggered, discontinuous interventions that characterize hybrid dynamical systems. This mismatch can lead to ad-hoc and error-prone causal analysis workflows in practice. To bridge the gap between the needs of hybrid systems users and current causal inference capabilities, we develop a rigorous counterfactual semantics by formalizing interventions as transformations to the constraints of hybrid systems. Unlike interventions in a typical structural causal model, however, interventions in hybrid systems can easily render the model ill-posed. Thus, we identify mild conditions under which our interventions maintain solution existence, uniqueness, and measurability by making explicit connections to established hybrid systems theory. To illustrate the utility of our framework, we formalize a number of canonical causal estimands and explore a case study on the probabilities of causation with applications to fishery management. Our work simultaneously expands the modeling possibilities available to causal inference practitioners and begins to unlock decades of causality research for users of hybrid systems.

In randomized trials involving multiple treatments, bivariate survival outcomes present significant analytical challenges for making decisions. This paper addresses the problem of deriving optimal individualized treatment rules to maximize the joint survival probability beyond fixed time points $(t_1, t_2)$ through deep neural networks, while accounting for right censoring. We propose a novel approach that models treatment rules via stochastic policies, coupling marginal accelerated failure time models via link function to capture bivariate dependence. To enhance robustness and effectiveness of decision making, we introduce an adaptive prediction-powered method that leverages auxiliary predictions from machine learning models.